Consumer sentiment falls in July

Final results show consumer sentiment declined 1.8 points in July to 66.4, 5.1 points lower than one year ago. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell 3.2 points from the previous month to 62.7, 13.8 points lower than year-ago-levels. The Consumer Expectations Index fell 0.8 points to 68.8, 0.5 points higher than the July 2023 Index.

“Consumer sentiment has remained virtually unchanged in the last three months. July’s reading was a statistically insignificant 1.8 index points below June, well under the margin of error. Sentiment has lifted 33% above the June 2022 historic low, but it remains guarded as high prices continue to drag down attitudes, particularly for those with lower incomes. Labor market expectations remain relatively stable, providing continued support to consumer spending. However, continued election uncertainty is likely to generate volatility in economic attitudes in the months ahead,” said University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, reaching 2.9%. In comparison, these expectations ranged between 2.3 to 3.0% in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 3.0%, unchanged from last month and remaining remarkably stable over the last three years. These expectations remain somewhat elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

Read the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release.